iPhones in Beijing? Well…maybe later

Close on the heels of Apple’s iPhone launch in England and Germany, China Mobile announced it is in talks with Apple to introduce their iconic device to the world’s biggest market. The stock market certainly liked the news – Apple’s share price jumped 10% on Tuesday. But we at Vital Wave Consulting are questioning the “mature-markets-first, emerging-markets-later” launch strategy.

Consider: no fewer than ten iPhone clones are now available in China. This is not just the result of lax IP protection; it is also an expression of pent up demand for the status and functionality of a high-end, multi-functional device. Emerging-market consumers have shown they’re more than willing to leapfrog technologies for the right value proposition (witness the millions who have foregone landlines in favor of mobile phones). This may already be occurring in India, where a combination of low phone rates and poor home Internet services has driven large increases in mobile browsing and, according to India’s Economic Times, a decrease in broadband subscriptions.

While Apple focuses on mature markets, China Mobile and other carriers have been strengthening their hand for the coming negotiations. China Mobile recently joined Google’s Open Handset Alliance, inked a deal with Research in Motion (RIM) to sell the Blackberry, and announced strong growth for their in-house music download service. (Sixty million out of their 350 million subscribers now use the service.) Apple, Google, Nokia, Palm, and RIM have an excellent growth opportunity in emerging markets, especially in urban areas where there is relatively strong infrastructure and a burgeoning middle class. However, the layer of gold around that opportunity will only get thinner with an “emerging markets later” approach.

Also in the news:

• Asus plans desktop Eee for ’08
• EBay launches microfinance lenders site
• Notebook makers pay attention to low-cost PC market

Mobile Banking Lacks a Global High-Tech Leader

Using mobile phones for financial transactions, or m-banking, has seen rapid adoption in countries like the Philippines and Japan. Though the service remains fragmented and country-specific, this week’s CIO magazine points out the growing opportunity for m-banking in Africa.

CIO bases their assertion on survey results from South Africa, where local bank subsidiaries are already processing thousands of mobile transactions each month, and the biggest barrier to wider adoption seems to be a lack of consumer awareness.

Finding signs of m-banking success in South Africa is not surprising. Vital Wave Consulting research reveals that the mobile phone saturation rate among South Africans living at or above subsistence is comparable to the level in European markets. Saturation in South Africa (and Nigeria), together with rapidly increasing mobile penetration rates in other African countries, create a fertile user base. And mobile phone-based financial services are particularly attractive when poor roads and public transportation systems make a trip to the bank an expensive, all-day journey.

There are ample, quantifiable business opportunities in the m-banking value chain for multiple players, including banks, international credit companies, carriers, and software designers. While financial service providers are moving quickly to realize these opportunities, no global technology leader has stepped forward. A multinational high-technology company capable of providing such mobile solutions has much to gain by enabling comprehensive m-banking across emerging markets.

Also in the news:
• Microsoft is putting their money on smart phones as the next computer
• GSM and CDMA search for the best foothold in developing countries
• Vodafone unveils handsets designed for emerging markets