iPhones in Beijing? Well…maybe later

Close on the heels of Apple’s iPhone launch in England and Germany, China Mobile announced it is in talks with Apple to introduce their iconic device to the world’s biggest market. The stock market certainly liked the news – Apple’s share price jumped 10% on Tuesday. But we at Vital Wave Consulting are questioning the “mature-markets-first, emerging-markets-later” launch strategy.

Consider: no fewer than ten iPhone clones are now available in China. This is not just the result of lax IP protection; it is also an expression of pent up demand for the status and functionality of a high-end, multi-functional device. Emerging-market consumers have shown they’re more than willing to leapfrog technologies for the right value proposition (witness the millions who have foregone landlines in favor of mobile phones). This may already be occurring in India, where a combination of low phone rates and poor home Internet services has driven large increases in mobile browsing and, according to India’s Economic Times, a decrease in broadband subscriptions.

While Apple focuses on mature markets, China Mobile and other carriers have been strengthening their hand for the coming negotiations. China Mobile recently joined Google’s Open Handset Alliance, inked a deal with Research in Motion (RIM) to sell the Blackberry, and announced strong growth for their in-house music download service. (Sixty million out of their 350 million subscribers now use the service.) Apple, Google, Nokia, Palm, and RIM have an excellent growth opportunity in emerging markets, especially in urban areas where there is relatively strong infrastructure and a burgeoning middle class. However, the layer of gold around that opportunity will only get thinner with an “emerging markets later” approach.

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• Asus plans desktop Eee for ’08
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Western Union Joins Mobile Remittance Market

Western Union has been so slow to respond to the market impact of mobile-phone based remittances, the company risks losing decades of market leadership in the money transfer business. The recent announcement of a partnership with the GSM Association (GSMA) may be an attempt to catch MasterCard, which announced a similar initiative at the 3GSM conference in February. According to Reuters, Western Union and GSMA will help operators let customers transfer funds from a mobile phone to a Western Union location and vice versa, and enable mobile-to-mobile transfers. A pilot program of the service will be available by mid-2008 and Western Union expects to see a material contribution to revenues in 3-5 years.

Western Union’s slow rollout of a mobile remittance program opened the door for companies like Visa, MasterCard, banks, and local service providers. Mobile-to-mobile money transfer programs are already generating revenue for more nimble players like Smart in the Philippines and Safaricom in Kenya, among others. By 2012, the number of recipients of international remittances could reach 1.5 billion and the size of the remittances market could total US$1 trillion, according to GSMA.

Non-technology companies like Western Union are being drawn into the telecommunications market by the increasing utility of mobile phones. The GSMA, its members and other mobile technology companies will benefit from new partnerships with global non-technology companies like Western Union. They provide valuable assets such as global brand and new services that can now be delivered via mobile technology. Association with a strong brand like Western Union can allay customer fears associated with accessing services and executing transactions via mobile phones. And, the added services present opportunities for additional revenue sources for all involved partners.

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• Mitec plans to enter low-cost PC space
• Eee PC makes a hot debut
• Norhtec thin client surfaces again

India’s Broadband Drop Surprises Analysts

This week’s nugget was unearthed in an Economic Times article that claimed, to everyone’s surprise, India’s fixed broadband subscription rates fell last quarter. The total number of Internet connections dropped to 9.22 million between April and June from 9.27 million the previous quarter. The article and related blogs speculate on the possible causes for this drop: unstable connections, poor service and bandwidth constraints. It may be that Indians are turning to their mobile devices to access the web. According to the Economic Times, 38 million people, or more than a fifth of India's 200 million-plus mobile subscribers, access the web via their handsets.

This drop in broadband Internet connections is small for a country the size of India. However, the lack of growth and the strength of mobile Internet access are notable. Fixed broadband availability and usage rates have often been used as an input for measuring a country’s technical maturity. The increasing sophistication of mobile devices may change that. Historical growth trends would have predicted that India’s broadband rates would continue to increase and certainly not slow, let alone fall. This demonstrates a weakness in historical-based approaches and confirms that new markets require new methods of evaluation. Applying developed-country adoption trends to developing-country markets leads business managers to design inappropriate strategies in emerging markets.

Technology is being adopted faster in emerging markets than in mature economies. Moreover, adoption and usage patterns may differ considerably. Consumer cash flow constraints, the stability and availability of a local infrastructure, technology awareness, and access to various technology devices all impact adoption curves. Therefore, historical growth trends are only one input among many to credibly forecast emerging-market growth. In a market like India, these factors can help project dramatic shifts in technology usage patterns. The increasing use of mobile phones for Internet access is yet another sign that IT and telecommunications strategies can no longer be considered in isolation, especially in emerging markets. Both industries will be competing more and more for access to the limited disposable income of developing-country customers.

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New Data Tools and Methods Required for Emerging-Market Business Decisions

Recent news articles have called into question the reliability of developing-country market data that is crucial to good decision-making for developing-country business expansion. Respected economist Lester Thurow challenged China’s economic growth statistics (New York Times subscription required) by using electricity consumption as a proxy for economic growth. Thurow estimates that China’s economy is growing at a rate of 4.5% to 6% annually, far less than the Chinese government’s figure of around 10%. Similarly, the Arab Advisors Group (AAG), a local telecommunications industry advisor, suggested that estimates of Jordan’s mobile penetration rates may be exaggerated based on results from their recent survey. Using two simple calculations - an assessment of population that takes into account migrants and expatriates as well as standard population figures, and an estimate of the actual number of phones per users – AAG asserts that mobile penetration may be closer to 50%, rather than the 74% claimed by local operators.

Market data such as mobile penetration and economic growth rates inform critical business decisions. The possible discrepancies suggested by AAG and Thurow demonstrate the complexity of designing for, and selling into, developing-country markets. Erroneous data can result from misrepresentation, insufficient validation, or from applying mature-market methods, user trends and historical adoption curves directly to emerging markets. Thurow’s approach to assessing China’s growth demonstrates how even developing-country data can be tested with creative proxies. AAG’s primary research revealed that over a third of all mobile users in Jordan have multiple phone lines (to capture savings on operator offers and promotions), which would lower market penetration estimates based on a unique subscription-to-subscriber ratio.

These two examples demonstrate that gathering accurate, reliable data on emerging markets requires new tools and methods, investigation beyond standard published sources, and a profound knowledge of local user needs, preferences and usage patterns. The companies that base their business growth decisions on sound, market-appropriate data collection and analysis will have the best chance of understanding the scope and location of the most compelling emerging-market growth opportunities.

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• Asus Set to Mass Produce and Launch $199 EEE PC
• India Overtakes U.S. as Nokia’s Second-largest Market
• Rumored Google Phone to Compete with OLPC

Quantifiable Business Value required for Social Development in Emerging Markets

Increasingly, multinational corporations are required to justify business investments in developing countries as having benefits for local populations, and likewise, philanthropy departments are asked to demonstrate the business rationale for philanthropic programs. IDG news recently discussed how some corporations are managing to achieve this delicate balance better than others. Recognizing and quantifying a blended value for these types of investments is necessary as technology companies search for near- and long-term growth opportunities in lower-income markets around the world where infrastructure is weak and educational programs are limited. For years, technology companies have addressed these issues through philanthropic or corporate social responsibility projects. As developing countries become increasingly attractive consumer markets, however, social development initiatives married to the company’s core products and services are proving to be sound strategic business investments.

The shift from philanthropy to sustainable business investments, or “social innovation,” may be here to stay, according to Unilever’s Chief Executive Patrick Cescau. Recently, Cescau even suggests that corporate social responsibility (CSR) may, in fact, be dying out. By addressing socio-economic conditions with their products and services, companies are both identifying next-generation consumers and discovering novel, low-cost ways of using technology.

Business managers sometimes find resistance to focusing company resources on emerging-market business growth due to the challenge of quantifying the opportunities and benefits. Managers responsible for growth in emerging markets will gain greater traction internally by demonstrating the business value of social development initiatives. These investments must be measured on the basis of market size, financial opportunity and alignment with current business systems and goals. By applying business rigor to social development initiatives, companies can ensure their sustainability and ultimately maximize the benefit to the target markets.

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• Kenya registers 1000 users daily on mobile money transfer system
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• World to see two billion PCs by 2015