Trust and Verify

Two seemingly unrelated announcements were made by a pair of tech industry heavyweights - Apple and (eBay's) PayPal. Apple extended two-step verification - where a code sent to an old device must be used to change an account or buy something on a new device - to 49 countries, including China, India, Brazil and dozens of other developing nations. Nigeria was not on the list. This is noteworthy because PayPal announced that tens of thousands of Nigerians signed up for PayPal in the first week of operations there. PayPal and its partners (a prominent local lending partner, suppliers in Dubai and China, and fast-growing online retailer Jumia) claim that e-commerce in Nigeria has officially arrived.

Of course, for consumers, signing up for PayPal or verifying a new iPhone is only the beginning of the online buying experience. The bloom will quickly fade from the e-commerce rose if buyers fail to receive an order or fall victim to identity theft. The trust barrier is considerably higher for emerging-market consumers than it is for their mature-market counterparts. In many developing countries, people generally mistrust banks, operators, mail delivery organizations, foreign companies, and the legal system's capacity to prosecute fraud or theft. It will take a concerted effort to build trust and educate new smartphone users about risk, data protection and privacy.

As smartphones and wearables are used for more and more functions, trust and education will determine the growth rate for online purchasing. Device makers, app developers, and service providers (including back-end hosts) all have tremendous opportunities up and down the e-commerce value chain. Multinational companies that build reliable public - and private-sector partnerships (particularly with delivery services) and implement strong, user-friendly security measures will foster trust. To be truly effective, these efforts should accompany early and continued investment in brand marketing via localized content and messaging that reinforces security features. Providing a platform for user reviews and focusing on early adopters and influencers through social media can also validate the online buying experience and address the trust issues of willing but wary buyers. 

iPhones in Beijing? Well…maybe later

Close on the heels of Apple’s iPhone launch in England and Germany, China Mobile announced it is in talks with Apple to introduce their iconic device to the world’s biggest market. The stock market certainly liked the news – Apple’s share price jumped 10% on Tuesday. But we at Vital Wave Consulting are questioning the “mature-markets-first, emerging-markets-later” launch strategy.

Consider: no fewer than ten iPhone clones are now available in China. This is not just the result of lax IP protection; it is also an expression of pent up demand for the status and functionality of a high-end, multi-functional device. Emerging-market consumers have shown they’re more than willing to leapfrog technologies for the right value proposition (witness the millions who have foregone landlines in favor of mobile phones). This may already be occurring in India, where a combination of low phone rates and poor home Internet services has driven large increases in mobile browsing and, according to India’s Economic Times, a decrease in broadband subscriptions.

While Apple focuses on mature markets, China Mobile and other carriers have been strengthening their hand for the coming negotiations. China Mobile recently joined Google’s Open Handset Alliance, inked a deal with Research in Motion (RIM) to sell the Blackberry, and announced strong growth for their in-house music download service. (Sixty million out of their 350 million subscribers now use the service.) Apple, Google, Nokia, Palm, and RIM have an excellent growth opportunity in emerging markets, especially in urban areas where there is relatively strong infrastructure and a burgeoning middle class. However, the layer of gold around that opportunity will only get thinner with an “emerging markets later” approach.

Also in the news:

• Asus plans desktop Eee for ’08
• EBay launches microfinance lenders site
• Notebook makers pay attention to low-cost PC market

Think Global, Partner Local

March 14, 2007

Think Global, Partner Local

Professor Pankaj Ghemawat of Harvard Business School poked a hole in the world-is-flat version of globalization in the current edition of Foreign Policy magazine. Ghemawat points out that “more than 90 percent of all phone calls, Web traffic, and investment is local,” and that most Web users chat with local friends or e-mail family rather than connect with someone overseas. “We’re more wired, but no more global.”

The preference for local, relevant content may account for the struggles US-based companies like Google, Yahoo, and eBay have faced in transplanting their success to emerging markets like Russia and China.

To win these markets, multinational tech companies are wisely experimenting with different business models – partnering with local competitors, surrendering overseas operations to local players, or signing up proven consumer champs like Pepsi and Procter and Gamble to find new advertising revenues.

There is a clear opportunity for SMB’s in developing countries to partner with multinational search and e-commerce companies to collect and deliver locally relevant content. Soon, it will be possible to identify a user’s location as soon as she logs on. The company with the strongest roster of local content providers will achieve the most business growth in that environment.

Also in the news this week

• MobiTV sees demand for service in developing countries
• Apple developing flash-memory notebooks – more rugged, less expensive could give Apple an emerging-market play
• Microsoft moves into enterprise VoIP – enabling more cost-effective operations in MNCs with overseas offices