Shifting Sands: Recent growth highlights the Middle East's technology potential

Jordan's budding IT industry got a big boost recently with the announcement of a new fund intended to help meet the financing needs of the country's growing crop of startup firms. Backers aim to launch the fund in 2010 with a combination of local enterprise and bank resources, along with support from the government and multinational investors in Jordan. The country's leader, King Abdullah, has made growing Jordan's $900 million technology industry a key part of his economic policy and is supporting the fund's creation. Initiatives like this are intended to give a further lift to indigenous firms and raise Jordan's status as a hub for the Arab technology industry, a position highlighted by Yahoo's recent acquisition of Amman-based Maktoob, the leading Arabic Internet portal.

These developments underscore the emergence of Middle Eastern countries as players in the global technology and communications industries as they try to diversify their economies. Abu Dhabi's Advanced Technology Investment Company (ATIC) made a big splash with its multi-billion dollar investment in AMD/GlobalFoundries and Chartered Semiconductor this year, while the brand new King Abdullah University of Science and Technology and its $10 billion endowment are attracting leading talent to Saudi Arabia. Mobile penetration has skyrocketed across the region and homegrown companies like Egypt's Orascom and Kuwait's Zain have become major operators both inside and outside of the Middle East.

The growth of Middle Eastern markets presents opportunities and challenges to multinationals. As noted above, companies based in the region are raising their profile both as acquirers and targets for foreign acquisition. Arab countries' populations are growing quickly and are disproportionately young, which makes them attractive markets for products and services in areas like education and entertainment. Despite recent liberalization, though, countries like Egypt, Morocco and Algeria remain heavily regulated in many aspects of their economy. The region is culturally diverse and politics remain a fault line. Learning the ins and outs of each national market may enable firms to better capitalize on this growing and multifaceted region.

Emerging Markets Definition and World Market Groups

Vital Wave Consulting enables accelerated revenue growth in emerging markets. The company follows established World Bank economic benchmarks to define emerging markets as countries that have a gross national income (GNI) of $10,725 or less per capita.

Within emerging markets, Vital Wave Consulting distinguishes between three sub-groups according to market size (population) and economic attractiveness (GNI per capita in purchasing power parity terms).

• Strategic Opportunity Markets are the largest and most economically attractive for a multinational corporation that is looking to grow its customer base. These markets have a population over 40 million, and strong real GDP growth. These markets also have a GNI per capita over $2000 per year in purchasing power parity (PPP).
• Niche Opportunity Markets are countries with a population under 40 million that have average incomes over $2000 in PPP terms and strong real GDP growth. These markets provide multinational companies with opportunities to grow their markets on a smaller scale, or they may be “gateways” to larger nearby markets.
• Long-term Opportunity Markets are the least attractive markets to a multinational corporation. These markets exhibit a low standard of living with a GNI per capita under $2,000 per year in PPP terms. In these countries, persistent poverty, corruption and political instability may be hampering economic growth. These countries may be viable markets in the long term with consistent political and economic reform.

(to view a larger version of this chart on the Vital Wave Consulting website click here).

Over 141 countries, representing 84% of the world’s population, meet these criteria. The proportion of worldwide technology expenditures by emerging-market countries is steadily increasing relative to mature markets. The ten largest emerging markets are expected to spend $558 billion on IT and telecommunications in 2009. By 2015, the combined GDP of emerging-market nations will surpass that of the top 20 developed economies.

Vital Wave Consulting provides strategic consulting, market research and business intelligence services and publications on emerging-market business opportunities. Clients include multinational corporations in the information technology and telecommunications industries. For more information, please visit www.vitalwaveconsulting.com, or call (650) 321-3313.