The Currency of Good Data

Measurement was a hot topic at the Council on Foundations' annual conference last week in Washington D.C. As data and evidence-based decision making continue to wend their way to the center of today's philanthropy conversation, funders and grantees increasingly look to monitoring and evaluation (M&E) for proof of a solution's value and to make programmatic improvements. Rigorous approaches such as Randomized Control Trials are considered the gold standard of impact measurement, and systems like the Impact Reporting and Investment Standards (IRIS) have been developed to standardize social, financial, and environmental performance metrics. Now, networks such as ANDE are encouraging grantees and funders to move beyond standardization and to integrate impact metrics with financial and operational processes, while broadening the collection and distribution of data to benefit an entire ecosystem or society.

Despite these positive trends, M&E is still hard to do well in developing countries. Good information is difficult to obtain, and its collection costs time, effort, and money that many feel would be better spent on direct beneficiaries. Furthermore, many grantees on the ground still struggle with basic evaluations, much less the rigorous M&E systems preferred by many funders. Grantees also frequently need help integrating this data into feedback loops and decision processes in order to make operational improvements.

Practical M&E programs in the developing world means measuring the right indicators with the right approach and the right amount of rigor. For corporate funders and CSR groups, measuring the business value alongside social impact is critical to conveying the full value of programs and ensuring continued financial support. There is an excellent opportunity to share the cost of collecting and analyzing program data with other donors and private sector players. Solid data - particularly on the opaque small-business sector - could help partners improve programs, design products or services, develop strategies, and create effective marketing campaigns. The collaborative approach to development is not new, but the currency of good data has the potential to bring a lot more collaborators into the tent. 

Car Talk

First came machines, then came machines that talk. Up next, machines that talk to each other. Consider the automobile, which started out as a fairly simple machine, then acquired more computer components and systems, and will soon be equipped with dozens, perhaps hundreds, of sensors integrating with drivers and passengers, the environment, and other cars.

The next wave of car technology is coming just as millions of new drivers in Asia, Africa, and Latin America get their first cars, and the role and function of cars is expanding beyond a simple people mover. More and more, cars are being seen as data generators, and the data they yield can populate an ever-wider range of databases (mapping, traffic, civil services, planning, insurance, consumer trends, health, and more). Given the amount of time people spend in their cars, there is already jockeying for position among data-hungry tech companies to integrate portable handheld devices with car systems - or better yet, to build sensors, chips, antennae, and software right into the cars. Tech industry giants, including Google, Apple, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and Intel, have been making sizeable investments in car-based technologies for several years.

These companies are sensing opportunities, and rightly so. Global sales of passenger cars will top 70 million in 2014, led by China (at 18 million units, or more than double the sales in the US). Among drivers - even in lower-income countries - there is a clear interest in avoiding traffic and collisions, and optimizing the driving environment with safety, comfort, entertainment, and information. The companies behind these technologies also understand that driving somewhere is evidence of consumer habits and intent. In emerging markets, having capable and reliable broadband networks, the right business models, the ability to connect multiple device types, and tailored solutions for different demographic segments are some of the more obvious challenges. As these challenges are better understood, there will be openings for hardware and software companies, mobile operators, service providers, programmers, and many others. One day soon, you may have to squeeze your Google Roadster between an Apple iCar and an AlibabaVan on the crowded streets of Bangkok.

Sustainable Crises

The US National Climate Assessment and the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) both recently signaled a heightened sense of urgency for dealing with global warming. The general message was: climate change is having very real, observable effects on the weather, agricultural production, and important ecosystems, and we're already paying a heavy price to fight it.

A particular focus in both reports was the high cost of severe weather events, which are increasing in number and intensity as the world warms. And many in the development community, governments, academia, and the private sector are turning their attention to strategies for mitigating the costs and improving resource management after these events. Past disasters have shown that quickly re-establishing phone and Internet connectivity is critical to the efficient deployment of food, water, medicine, and shelter. While some governments have increased their investments in disaster preparedness, the ability to coordinate a response after large-scale events is often dependent on a diverse set of public and private service providers. Network operators are in the best position to work with governments and aid organizations to restore communications, locate the missing, and track relief efforts. But the ownership and use of private data, the responsibility for rebuilding infrastructure, and the profit motive are thorny issues that can put operators at odds with governments and aid organizations.

The development community can serve as facilitator, influencer, funder, and lead builder of a sustainable (or at least more efficient) model for coordinated, multi-sector disaster relief. Each of these roles demands more resource-efficient programs, better integration, robust technology platforms, and implementing organizations that can successfully complete multi-dimensional projects in the field. The case for taking these measures is heating up along with the rest of the world.

Money Changers

What are the basic tools in your personal financial toolbox? Cash, of course. A debit card tied to a checking account. Credit cards. A savings account. And then there are a whole bunch of comparatively passive tools designed to stave off disaster - health and life insurance, retirement account, mortgage, stocks, and bonds.

Now imagine you were born and raised in rural Tanzania, or Thailand, or Brazil, and you have none of the pre-conceived notions about those financial tools. There are no banks in the village, and even if there were, you're not sure the bank can be trusted. No one owns a credit card, or insurance, or stocks or bonds. You're paid in cash for the work you do. Your daughter convinced you to sign up for mobile money when she moved to the capital to work, and it was the easiest way to send money home. Then, it seems overnight, you could use your mobile wallet to buy food, or pay for a taxi. Now you have a better phone, and your daughter says you can use it to find information about the weather or yesterday's game, open a savings account, buy insurance, apply for a small loan, and pay bills.

The fact is, the concept of money is undergoing a fundamental transformation, and different players are stepping in to offer financial services where there were none before. (Think M-Pesa and its imitators, Google Wallet, and Facebook's quiet, impending launch of mobile money in Ireland.) New financial services by any company will have to gain the trust of wary consumers and navigate a tricky set of regulatory and business-model obstacles. Still, the relatively open regulatory environment, the greenfield technology and banking landscape, and a clear willingness by consumers to adopt technologies that improve their lives make developing countries fertile ground for the introduction of new financial services. Emerging markets are already out in front of a brave new financial world, and villagers in Tanzania, Thailand, and Brazil are starting to look at our paper checks and credit cards with a mix of confusion and humor.

Net Wars - Attack of the Drones

At the recent Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg urged operators to offer unlimited, low-cost service bundles, in which free versions of Facebook, Whatsapp, Google, Skype and other popular sites are treated like "utilities." Experience in the Philippines and Paraguay, he said, prove that the net benefit - typically in broader penetration, more subscribers, and increased daily use - justifies the expense of building out a network and offering free and bundled services. This assertion received a polite but muted response from an audience that is all too aware of the capital and operating costs of rolling out more, bigger, and better networks. Less than a month after the MWC, Zuckerberg (as the figurehead and public face of Internet.org) reiterated his intention to deliver last-mile Internet services with solar-powered drones, satellites, and lasers. Though light on details, the idea has generated a fair amount of buzz and only a few critical comments about how developing countries may not be excited about a fleet of US-company-supported drones circling their airspace. Even fewer consider the implications of Facebook's drones (or Google's balloons) bypassing network operators completely, and putting the keys to Internet access firmly in the hands of advertising giants.

The Day of Global Internet Coverage is coming, though no one knows the date. It's notable that the advertising, e-commerce, and mobile phone crowd is making the most noise about it. And why shouldn't they? They have a lot to gain from Bushmen friending Sherpas. Someone will find a workable model for extending Internet connectivity to every corner of the globe, by working with network operators to reduce their CAPEX and OPEX exposure (e.g., through leasing models, sponsored access, compressed bandwidth technologies, PAYGI or PAYGS plans), or by floating drones and balloons, or with a combination of these and other ideas. 

No single company will achieve the goal of global coverage. Internet.org, with the footprint, depth of experience, and vast assets of all the partners (Facebook, Qualcomm, Ericsson, Samsung, and others) could move it along significantly. But all those assets still need to be marshalled under a clear and detailed strategy, as surely as solar-powered drones need the sun.

Russian Roulette

When your standard marching orders are to grow the company's emerging market business, what's to be done with sudden political crises like those we've seen in Russia? Since Vladimir Putin decided to help himself to part of Ukraine, the Russian economy has seen $70 billion in capital flight (slightly more than all of 2013), leading to stagnant growth and fears of inflation. Investors and business managers are less concerned with a few Black Sea ports than they are with precedents like annexing ethnic enclaves and shutting off oil spigots to Ukraine or Europe.

Seasoned emerging-market veterans will see the rising tension between Russia and the West for what it is - part of the cost of doing business in a market with inherent political risks. As the Russian oligarchy and its pugnacious leader engage in riskier behavior, executives in tech, pharma, and a number of other industries might decide to make their big moves elsewhere. However, it's worth noting that business growth in Russia (and other politically risky emerging markets) has been fairly robust for almost 20 years, and though the oil-and-gas gravy train may be slowing, most of the other engines are on track: the middle class is growing, demand for consumer products and services is soaring, and there's room for growth in many industries.

With the exception of a few industries, business leaders who worry about getting in bed with robber barons have a few mitigating factors to consider. Technology has a democratizing effect, education and healthcare help the masses, financial services spread the wealth, and agriculture puts food on the table. By focusing on trends, not on the crisis, companies can identify long-term opportunities that merit the complex navigation through political storms. There will be opportunities in Russia after Crimea, in India after the elections, in Brazil when the debt bubble bursts. When choosing the "wait and see" approach, don't stop asking the man on the street what he's going to do with all that hard-earned cash when the dust settles.

The Shift to Sustainability in the Post-2015 Agenda

From November 2013 to February 2014, Richard Heeks at ICT4D published a series of nuanced and well-cited analyses of the process and likely outcomes of the post-2015 development agenda. His 4-part investigation included a graphic history of the creation of MDGs, a review of post-MDG events, textual analysis of the documents resulting from those events, and a comparison of new agenda items to the outgoing goals and objectives. For anyone in the development community, or even private sector players who understand how the global development agenda can influence public policies and expenditures, Heeks' concise analysis is worth a read.
Heeks argues that the development agenda dynamics "reflect real-world change," responding to the shifting roles of aid and the private sector, the rising tide of domestic and international migration, the supremacy of services over manufacturing, and the ubiquity of mobile devices. According to his early analysis, three issues will increase in importance after 2015:

1. Environment and Sustainability
2. Migration
3. Open and Inclusive Development

These three issues are likely to cut across industry-specific initiatives, requiring "systems thinking" as the development community moves from strategy to implementation.

Systems thinking means the development community will need to understand not just an isolated issue, but how that issue (and programs designed to address it) impacts and is impacted by other elements in the ecosystem. When choosing partners, organizations may want to consider how those partners and their incentives will shift dynamically over time. In effect, no matter where the compass points when the post-2015 course is set, thorough ecosystem assessment, dynamic business modeling, and understanding links between different solutions can help organizations implement more sustainable programs and measure holistically their impact over time.